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Essay代写:The economy of China and the European Union

2017-09-18 | 来源:51due教员组 | 类别:Essay代写范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- The economy of China and the European Union,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了中国与欧盟的经济。自欧盟成立以来,中国经济一直都在波动,而且幅度较大;中国经济与欧盟经济的相关性经历了先增强再减弱,到再增强的过程,但总体上相关性程度依然较低;中国经济波动滞后于欧盟经济波动,这也表明中国经济对欧盟经济存在较强的依赖性。

China and the European Union,中国与欧盟,英国代写,英国论文代写,essay代写

This Essay has carried out a series of metrological tests on the increasing importance of the interaction and influence of the economic fluctuation between China and EU. The test results show that since the establishment of the old EU in 1973, China's economy is more sustainable than the European Union, but China's economy is more volatile; the correlation between China's economy and EU economy has experienced the process of first strengthening, weakening and strengthening, but the relativity degree is still low. China's economic fluctuation lags behind EU economic fluctuation Shows that China's economy has a strong dependence on the EU economy; there is no Granger causality between China's GDP and EU GDP at the significant level of 5%, while there is a positive pull between China's GDP and bilateral trade, but the impact of EU economy on bilateral trade is far greater than that of China on bilateral trade.

Since the 1990s, with the deepening of China's integration into the economic globalization, China's economic ties with the EU have become increasingly close. In 2008 1―10 months, bilateral trade between China and the EU amounted to $359.37 billion, accounting for 16.4% of China's total foreign trade and China's largest trading partner. With the development of bilateral economic and trade relations, the fluctuation of economic fluctuation between China and the European Union will lead to the resonance of each other by means of factor flow, trade channel, financial market and other entity or fictitious economy. On October 6, 2008, the global stock market suffered "black Monday", the Dow Jones index fell below the million points, the largest one-day decline in history, the Shanghai stock market also declined 5.14%. Especially at the moment when the world economy is facing the most serious financial crisis since the 30 's, it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the correlation and interaction law between China and EU economic fluctuation.

The current literature is mainly to examine the relationship and influence of China and EU economy as China's integration into the process of economic globalization. At present, there is no systematic study on the synchronization of economic fluctuation between China and EU. After studying China's trade policy after joining WTO and focusing on the Sino-EU economic relations, the author thinks that China's continued rise has erixon the importance of its trade policy, which has rapidly become a major importance in the world trading system. Shana examines the intra-industry trade between China and the European Union, and the author uses the G―l index to analyze the overall situation of intra-industry trade between China and the EU 15 countries, and the research results show that The trade index of China and EU in 2004 was as high as 0.509, which showed that the trade mode of the Central Europe has changed from industry to intra-industry trade, and intra-industry trade has become the main form of trade in Central Europe. Hus―sain inspected the trade surplus between EU and BRICS, especially the trade relations between China and the EU. The results show that the 27 countries ' exports of services to BRICS in 2006 amounted to US $46 billion and the import of trade in services amounted to $39 billion. Since 2004, China has become the most important trading partner of the EU and BRICS four countries.

This article mainly from the quantitative point of view, using the correlation coefficient between China and EU GDP analysis, to investigate the evolution of the historical path of the relationship between the two, through the horizontal correlation between China and the European Union's economic sustainability, volatility and lead lag relationship between the comparison; analysis of the existence of pseudo correlation by Granger causality Through the impulse response function and variance decomposition in Var model to describe the path of interaction between the two through international trade channels.

From the correlation analysis, the correlation between China's economic fluctuation and the European Union has experienced the process of first strengthening and weakening to the further enhancement, which is related to the historical process of China's reform and opening-up and some global economic events. From 1973-1988, the correlation coefficient between China and EU rose from 0.77 to 0.47, and from 1989-1991, due to the Western economic blockade, China's overall economic fluctuation in the EU was negatively correlated with the correlation coefficient of-0.91. Starting from the 1992 party's 14-point proposal to establish a socialist market economic system, China's reform and Opening-up has entered a new stage of development, the economic and trade relations between China and the EU are increasingly close, and the relativity between them has been negatively correlated, and the correlation coefficient is 0.47. From 1997 to 2001, the synchronization between China and EU economic fluctuations continued to increase, and the correlation coefficient was 0.07. Since 2002, both the Chinese economy and the European Union economy have entered a new stage of development, the synchronization of the economic cycle has been significantly enhanced, and the economic fluctuations of each other are generally strong positive correlation, the correlation coefficient as high as 0.81. The relative coefficient of economic fluctuations between China and the European Union is also broadly similar.

In the study of the horizontal correlation between China and EU GDP growth rate data, first-order autocorrelation indicates the continuity of the economy, the continuity of economy indicates the trend of economic activity in the next period, the standard deviation reflects the stability of each economy, and the horizontal correlation reflects the synchronism between China and EU economy. Table 2 shows that China's economy is more sustainable than most countries in the European Union. The first-order autocorrelation of China's GDP growth rate is 0.38, the first-order autocorrelation of EU GDP is 0.20; China's economy is volatile, the standard deviation of China's GDP growth rate is 3.49, and the EU GDP growth rate is 1.20. From the perspective of horizontal correlation, China's economy and most of the EU countries have a positive synchronization. China's economic fluctuations lag behind the European Union's economic fluctuations for about three years, indicating that China's economy has a certain dependence on the EU economy.

The above analysis shows that there is a clear correlation between China and EU GDP growth rate, but this correlation does not represent causation, so we need to use Granger causality test to further investigate the causality between China and EU economic fluctuation, and whether the correlation between variables is pseudo related.

Before examining Granger causality test, we tested the time series of GDP growth rate in China and EU, and the ADF test showed that all the sequences were Ji Jiping stable. Granger causality check the selection of hysteresis items reference sic value, the test results see table 3 shows that there is no Granger causality between China's GDP and the EU's overall GDP. China's GDP is the Granger cause of GDP growth in the U.K. and the Netherlands through a 5% per cent significant test, suggesting that under 95% confidence levels, China's GDP is the Granger cause of GDP growth in the U.K. and the Netherlands. The Granger cause of GDP growth in Greece and Portugal is a significant test of 5%, suggesting that, under the 95% level of prominence, the Greek and Portuguese GDP is the Granger cause of GDP growth in China. The Granger cause of GDP growth in other countries cannot be tested by 5%.

Because Granger causality test and cointegration test only reflect the causality and long-run equilibrium relationship between China and EU GDP fluctuation, in order to better investigate the path of interaction between them, this paper uses VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition to investigate the dynamic path of economic fluctuation between China and EU. When the Var model investigates the relationship between variables, its greatest advantage is that it is not restricted by the prior economic theory, and it is studied directly by the characteristics of time series data itself, and the prior knowledge is only used to consider and select the economic variables to be included in the model.

Based on the natural value of China GDP, EU GDP and bilateral trade, the first order and the availability of trade data, this paper chooses the VAR model of 1984―2007 China GDP, the whole EU GDP and bilateral trade volume:

On the basis of the Var model, the impulse response function is used to measure the influence of the standard difference of the random perturbation terms on the current and future values of the endogenous variables. If e changes, it not only causes the current value of each variable to change, but also affects its future value through the current value. The impulse response function can describe the dynamic trajectories of these effects, and show how the perturbation of any one variable affects all other variables through the model and eventually feeds back to its own process.

Figure 2 shows that the European Union's GDP impact on its own new-interest shocks is immediate and diminishing, negative from the impact of the impact after the year four, and then gradually decays until it disappears. The European Union's GDP is not obvious to the new-interest shocks from other factors, it shows that the operation of EU economy is more affected by its own factors; The European Union's new-interest impact on China's GDP has just begun to be a negative response, and then, after the fourth year, the biggest, and then decay and gradually disappear. ; The European Union's GDP has begun to show a weak negative response to the impact of the new bilateral trade, which has been steadily increasing after the sixth period, gradually fading into extinction.

China's GDP has a significant positive response to its own new-interest shocks, at the end of the second year, it became a negative response, and thereafter the volatility waned; the impact on the new bilateral trade was just beginning to show no response, and then increasing, reaching its maximum in the third year, indicating that China's GDP was being increasingly affected by bilateral trade. ; The initial response to the new European Union's GDP shock, which then turned into a negative response, was only a positive response after the fifth year, which was linked to the competitiveness of the central European economy.

Bilateral trade has a positive reaction to the first year of the impact of its new interest, and then decays until it disappears; the impact of the new European Union's GDP on the previous four years has been negative, and then turned into positive reaction and gradually attenuation, indicating that bilateral trade is affected by the EU economy. ; The response to the new shocks from China's GDP has just begun to be negative, and then to be strengthened, reaching its maximum at the end of the first year and then diminishing. It shows that China's economy has a certain lag period in the pulling effect of bilateral trade.

This shows that the EU GDP growth is mainly affected by its own factors; European Union GDP has a strong impact on China's GDP growth, but the reverse effect is weaker; EU GDP has a negative impact on bilateral trade, which is related to the weak economic growth of the EU in recent years ; China's GDP has a one-year lag in the pulling role of bilateral trade.

When the Var model is investigated, the dynamic characteristics of the model can also be studied by means of variance decomposition. The main idea is that the fluctuation of each endogenous variable in the system is decomposed into the M component of the threading of the parties, thus revealing the relative importance of the random disturbances that affect the VAR model variables.

Based on the estimation of VAR model, we divided the variance of EU, China and bilateral trade. The variance decomposition of EU GDP shows that the influence of each factor is gradually stabilized after four years, and about 85% of the changes can be explained by its own factors; The EU's GDP changes can be explained by a small part of bilateral trade, which shows that bilateral trade has weaker impact on the EU economy. In the EU's economic growth, the impact of China's GDP has increased over time, with about 10% of China's GDP being explained. This shows that the EU economy is more affected by its own factors, the impact of China's GDP and bilateral trade on the EU economy is less.

In the variance decomposition of China's GDP, about 55% of the impact can be explained by its own factors, the EU and bilateral trade factors explained by the Department of 30% and 15% respectively. The impact of China's economic growth on GDP and bilateral trade in the EU free trade area has been increasing over time.

In the variance decomposition of bilateral trade, the part of the EU GDP explanation is rising, which is about 45%, and the part of China's GDP is stable, accounting for 20%, and bilateral trade from its own influence has been declining, finally about 35%. It shows that the growth of bilateral trade is affected by the fluctuation of EU economy, which is closely related to the great influence of EU demand on bilateral trade.

With the deepening of China's integration into the economic globalization, on the one hand, the fluctuation of EU economy has significantly affected the operation of China's economy, meanwhile, the pulling role of the Chinese factor to the EU economy is gradually increasing. This paper uses a series of econometric analysis tools to study the synchronization of economic growth between China and EU. The main conclusions are as follows:

Influenced by the stage of China's reform and opening-up process, the correlation between China and EU economy has experienced the process of strengthening and weakening first, and the correlation coefficient of the two is still negative during the whole period, indicating that the economic influence of each other is still not strong. However, since China's entry into WTO, the correlation between Chinese and EU economic fluctuation has been gradually strengthened, which is the result of deepening bilateral economic and trade ties, and also the proof of the importance of Chinese factors.

Compared with the European countries, China's economic fluctuation is more persistent and volatile, and China's economic fluctuation lags behind the European Union's economic fluctuation for three years, which shows that the Chinese economy has a strong dependence on the EU economy.

There is no Granger causality between China's GDP and the GDP growth of the whole EU, but the Granger cause of GDP growth in the U.K. and the Netherlands can be tested by 5%, and the Granger cause of GDP growth in Greece and Portugal can be tested by 5%. This shows that the interaction between the Chinese economy and the EU economy is still weak, but the impact will continue to increase as the economic ties become closer to each other.

The EU economy has a great impact on bilateral trade, China's economy has a relatively weak impact on bilateral trade, and the Chinese economy has a lag period of one year to stimulate bilateral trade. This shows that, as the main demand of China's exports, the EU economy has a great effect on bilateral trade and the growth of China's economy.

In a word, with the deepening of China's opening-up, especially with the rapid development of economy and the increasing importance of Chinese factors, the interdependence and mutual influence of China and EU economy are gradually enhanced, especially the impact of China's economic fluctuation on the EU economy will be increasing. The operation of China's economic cycle will affect the economic cycle of the European Union, the current economic stability of China's growth will help the EU countries out of the current economic downturn, to achieve an early recovery of the economy.

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